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- Location: Great Britain, Ireland
- Institution: Newcastle University, University of Galway, University of Reading
- Status: Active
- Type: Independent
- Theme: Projections
- Timeframe: 2024-2029
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Climate projections are widely used to inform decision-makers about how the climate might change, depending on future choices about greenhouse gas emissions. Many governments and organisations have committed to reaching net-zero emissions, meaning they aim to balance the amount of greenhouse gases released by human activity with the amount removed. If these goals are met, it is assumed that global temperatures could stabilise at specific warming levels at specific points in the future, known as ‘Global Warming Levels’ (GWLs), like 1.5°C, 2°C, or 3°C above pre-industrial times. This project aims to create climate projections that show what the world might look like at those different levels of warming.
It will also study how natural climate patterns—like ocean currents and weather cycles—can temporarily make warming appear stronger or weaker in certain places. To do this, we will use data from global and regional climate models, including projections from the UK Met Office, Met Éireann, the Irish Centre for High-end Computing (ICHEC), and other research groups.
These projections will help us understand how climate change could impact biodiversity, carbon storage, and water quality in Ireland and the UK. By providing better data, we aim to support smarter decisions for the future.
Project Goals
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Develop Global Warming Level focused projections for the UK and Ireland, including the different potential pathways to stabilisation
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Create ways to measure how climate change and natural climate variations affect things like temperature, rainfall, and extreme weather. These measurements will then be used to create climate projection models which will be used to assess potential climate futures.
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Examine why climate naturally changes over time, how these changes differ across and how long these natural shifts last for the UK and Ireland.
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Create useful tools and reports that help researchers, policymakers and other organisations plan for the future.
Institutions
