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- Location: Great Britain, Ireland
- Institution: Newcastle University, University of Galway, University of Reading
- Status: Active
- Type: Independent
- Theme: Projections
- Timeframe: 2024-2029
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Climate projections inform decision-makers about how the climate might change depending on future choices about greenhouse gas emissions.
Many governments and organisations commit to reaching net-zero emissions, aiming to balance the greenhouse gases released by human activity with the amount removed. If they meet these goals, global temperatures could stabilise at specific warming levels in the future, known as ‘Global Warming Levels’ (GWLs), such as 1.5°C, 2°C, or 3°C above pre-industrial times.
This project creates climate projections that show what the world might look like at these different levels of warming.
It is also studying how natural climate patterns (like ocean currents and weather cycles) can temporarily make warming appear stronger or weaker in certain places. To do this, we are using data from global and regional climate models, including projections from the UK Met Office, Met Éireann, the Irish Centre for High-end Computing (ICHEC), and other research groups.
These projections will help us understand how climate change could impact biodiversity, carbon storage, and water quality in Ireland, Northern Ireland, and Great Britain.
Project Goals
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Develop Global Warming Level focused projections for the UK and Ireland, including the different potential pathways to stabilisation
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Create ways to measure how climate change and natural climate variations affect things like temperature, rainfall, and extreme weather. These measurements will then be used to create climate projection models which will be used to assess potential climate futures.
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Examine why climate naturally changes over time, how these changes differ across and how long these natural shifts last for the UK and Ireland.
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Create useful tools and reports that help researchers, policymakers and other organisations plan for the future.
Institutions
