- Location: Great Britain, Ireland
- Institution: Maynooth University, Newcastle University, Trinity College Dublin, University of Reading
- Status: Active
- Type: Independent
- Theme: Projections
- Timeframe: 2024 – 2029
Share on social
For decision-makers, climate change is now a problem of risk assessment and risk management. We are developing ‘storylines’ for the UK and Ireland, examining possible futures and the potential consequences of plausible extreme climate outcomes. This responds to a recognised need to move beyond discussions of ‘likely’ outcomes and consider plausible worst-case scenarios.
A range of extreme climate outcomes is examined, which may include:
• A large atmospheric jet stream shift
• An abrupt ocean circulation change
• A series of large volcanic eruptions
• An increase in east Atlantic hurricanes making extratropical transition
• An under-estimation of forced trends in means and extremes, compounding or cascading extremes, and the clustering or slow movement of storms
We are identifying the impacts of these potential futures on climate and plant physiology. We are specifically examining the consequences for changes in plant functioning, plant mortality, carbon cycling, and species diversity and distributions.
Project Goals
-
Develop a range of climate storylines for the UK and Ireland of plausible futures involving potential extreme outcomes.
-
Create a set of actionable outputs (products and timeseries) that can be used by researchers and decision-makers.
Institutions
