- Location: Great Britain, Ireland
- Institution: Maynooth University, Newcastle University, Trinity College Dublin, University of Reading
- Status: Active
- Type: Independent
- Theme: Projections
- Timeframe: 2024 – 2029
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For decision-makers, climate change is now arguably a problem in risk assessment and risk management. There is a recognised need to move beyond discussing ‘likely’ outcomes and consider plausible worst-case scenarios.
We will develop ‘storylines’ for the UK and Ireland, examining possible futures and the consequences of plausible extreme climate outcomes without the need to explicitly quantify the likelihood of those outcomes.
A range of extreme climate outcomes will be examined, which may include:
- A large atmospheric jet stream shift
- An abrupt ocean circulation change
- A series of large volcanic eruptions
- An increase in east Atlantic hurricanes making extratropical transition
- An under-estimation of forced trend in means & extremes, compounding or cascading extremes and clustering or slow movement of storms.
We will identify the impacts of these potential futures on the climate and plant physiology. We will specifically examine the consequences for changes in plant functioning, plant mortality, carbon cycling and species diversity and distributions.
Project Goals
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Develop a range of climate storylines for the UK and Ireland of plausible futures involving potential extreme outcomes.
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Create a set of actionable outputs (products and timeseries) that can be used by researchers and decision makers.
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