- Location: Great Britain
- Institution: Newcastle University
- Status: Active
- Type: Business
- Theme: Risk & Opportunity
- Timeframe: 2024 - 2029
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When heavy rainfall and strong winds occur at the same time, their combined impact can be far more damaging than either hazard on its own. For example, the winter of 2013/14 in Ireland and the UK saw frequent storms bringing high rainfall volumes alongside strong winds. Together, these conditions caused widespread flooding, damaged buildings and transport networks, and disrupted forestry and other land-based activities.
Despite these real-world impacts, our understanding of how often combined rainfall-and-wind extremes occur across Europe remains limited. We also know relatively little about the large-scale weather patterns that drive these events, or how their likelihood may change in the future as the climate continues to warm. Most existing studies focus on rainfall or wind separately, rather than examining how the two hazards interact.
This project aims to address that gap by improving understanding of the risks associated with extreme rainfall and wind occurring together across Europe. The research will investigate when and where these compound events are most likely to occur, the atmospheric conditions that cause them, and how those conditions vary from year to year and over longer timescales.
A key outcome of the project is its practical value for industry. The new insights will help project partner Gallagher Re identify hotspots within their portfolio where combined wind and rainfall risks are most common. By improving understanding of how closely linked these hazards are during extreme events, Gallagher Re will be able to assess risk more accurately.
The project will also explore advances in seasonal and longer-term weather forecasting. This will help Gallagher Re build expertise in using emerging forecast tools, supporting more informed decision-making, such as pricing insurance and reinsurance contracts ahead of winter seasons with elevated risk.
Project Goals
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Understand extremal dependence of rainfall and wind across Europe over various timescales
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Understand contributing factors to seasons in Europe that are extremely wet and windy
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Quantify near-term decadal forecasts of drivers of wet and windy winters.
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