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Project

Hydrological Projections for the British and Irish Isles

Hydrological Projections for the British and Irish Isles

Many hydrological projection datasets exist for the UK and Ireland, but none cover both islands consistently. This project develops a high-quality, state-of-the-art dataset spanning the British and Irish Isles, helping us understand how extreme weather events, such as floods and droughts, may change in the future and accounting for uncertainty in the predictions. Using the same hydrological models across both islands also improves comparability of results and understanding of catchment sensitivity to change.

The dataset supports drought and water resources planning, providing analysis and visual tools to help water managers understand and plan for future risks. It also enables new research, recognising similarities and differences in climate, geography, governance, and water management, and feeds into our collaborations with business partners.

Project Goals

  • Develop a common multi-model framework for hydrological projections across the British & Irish isles

  • Produce a set of consistent hydrological projections for the British and Irish isles

  • Use these projections to understand future hydrological risks in the British and Irish isle

  • Feed the outcomes into relevant business projects

Project Outputs

UKCEH Summer School Training Materials

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Poster: Climate variability conceals emerging hydrological trends across Great Britain

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Climate variability conceals emerging hydrological trends across Great Britain

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Is Climate Change Making UK Droughts Worse?

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A simple and robust approach for adapting design storms to assess climate-induced changes in flash flood hazard

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Oceanic drivers of UK summer droughts

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BURGER: A Bottom-Up Regionalization Approach for Global Sub-Daily Intensity-Duration-Frequency Data

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River flow amplification under climate change: attribution and climate-driven storylines of the winter 2023/24 UK floods

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Have river flow droughts become more severe? A review of the evidence from the UK – a data-rich, temperate environment

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Hydrology for impact: building partnerships, blending knowledge and bracing for climate change

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Sub-hourly precipitation and rainstorm event profiles in a convection-permitting multi-GCM ensemble

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The Needs, Challenges, and Priorities for Advancing Global Flood Research

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Precipitation extremes in 2024

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Are dependencies of extreme rainfall on humidity more reliable in convection-permitting climate models?

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Changes in the Regional Water Cycle and Their Impact on Societies

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Dynamical adjustment reveals spatial patterns of wetting and drying in European winter precipitation

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Application of the Davies four-stage conceptual model for life-threatening rainfall extremes on the April 2024 United Arab Emirates and Oman floods

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The Emergence of a Climate Change Signal in Ireland’s Rainfall Extremes

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