- Location: Great Britain, Ireland
- Institution: Maynooth University, Newcastle University, UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, University College Cork
- Status: Active
- Type: Independent
- Theme: Projections
- Timeframe: 2024-2029
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There are many datasets of hydrological projections available for the UK and Ireland, however, there have not been any previous attempts to develop consistent sets of projections across the whole British and Irish isles. Therefore, the overall aim of this project is to develop a state-of-the-art dataset of hydrological projections that spans across both islands.
These projections will help us understand how extreme weather events, like floods and droughts, might change in the future across Ireland and the UK, while also considering the level of uncertainty in the predictions. They will also enable new research opportunities given the hydroclimatic/geographical similarities – and yet important differences, including different governance and resource management contexts.
There is a particular need across all jurisdictions for analysis approaches that can help translate climate projections into actionable information to support water resources management. While river flow projections based on the latest climate projections (e.g. UKCP18 – eFLaG) are available, their uptake in decision-making is currently limited. In part this is because translation is needed, turning projections into indicators that are relevant for drought or water resources planning, and developing analysis/visualisations that can help water managers understand and plan for changing risks in future.
Moreover, there are inevitably uncertainties in hydrological projections (arising from the hydrological models as well as climate model inputs) and decision-makers need to quantify this uncertainty and its impacts.
This project will benefit from strong links with existing initiatives undertaking hydrological projections. The ability to deploy the same hydrological models across the UK and Ireland will increase comparability of results across the British and Irish Isles, and therefore understanding of catchment sensitivity to change.
These tools and outputs will feed into business projects as needed – notably, the business project on water resources decision-making under deep uncertainty, where these projections are an essential input.
Project Goals
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Develop a common multi-model framework for hydrological projections across the British & Irish isles.
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Produce a set of consistent hydrological projections for the British and Irish isles.
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Use these projections to understand future hydrological risks in the British and Irish isle.
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Feed the outcomes into relevant business projects.
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